Samuel Benner cycle – Is it true?

The Samuel Benner cycle is a model used to predict future economic and market trends. It was created by Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer, and was published in his book “Benner’s Prophecies: Future Ups and Downs in Prices” in 1875.

Benner’s book contained price charts for pig iron, corn, hogs, and cotton. Its purpose was to guide others on profiting from these commodities. The book also included business and commodity price predictions for the years 1876 to 1904. Samuel Benner, a prosperous farmer, suffered financial ruin during the 1873 panic. In his quest to understand market fluctuations, he uncovered significant cyclicality.

How to read Samuel Benner cycle

Samuel Benner’s three cycles consisted of:

  • Corn and pig prices have a pattern that repeats every 11 years. The prices reach their highest point every five years and six years alternatively.
  • Cotton prices varied in patterns with 11-year highs.
  • The price of pig iron follows a 27-year cycle, with low points happening every 11 and 9 years, and peaks occurring every 8 and 10 years.

Is it true?

The image displays the years of panic, good times, and hard times. During panic years, the market behaves irrationally and causes extreme fluctuations in stock prices. Good times are characterized by high prices and are the ideal period for trading stocks, commodities, and other assets. In challenging years, stocks, products, and assets are held until the prosperous boom years, when they should be sold.

The image indicates that 2023 is a hard time, which aligns with the current volatility in both domestic and global stock markets, including banking failures, predicted economic slowdowns, and tech layoffs.


Samuel Benner cycle is not a foolproof method of analysing financial markets. When used at all, they should be in conjunction with other technical and fundamental indicators to make trading decisions.